Flying cars were initially seen as vehicles that could function both as personal cars and aircraft. However, this perception has changed over the past twenty years. Nowadays, a flying car refers to a vehicle that enables humans to travel in three dimensions, typically over short distances. These cars aim to offer the same convenience as regular cars while also being more affordable than helicopters. Additionally, their manufacturing process should be scalable to accommodate mass production. Currently, OEMs produce only a few thousand helicopters each year, whereas around 80 million motor vehicles are manufactured annually worldwide. In this article, we will delve into the specifics of this sector and explore its impact on the semiconductor industry.
Global Flying Car Market Overview
The global flying car market is currently small. It primarily consists of single-unit shipments (prototypes), funded pilot projects, and real estate deals to secure potential sites for flying car takeoff and landing zones. The market is limited due to the early stage of technology development and administrative obstacles. It results in flying car routes primarily being restricted to remote areas despite the majority of demand being in urban areas.
However, urban mobility is gradually transitioning towards digital, high-end technologies and green mobility initiatives to establish a more sustainable and resilient transportation infrastructure. The increasing urbanization calls for alternative solutions to address urban transportation challenges such as traffic congestion and air pollution. While the latter issue can be addressed by further adopting electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, the former continues to burden economic activities and everyday life. Three-dimensional transportation, specifically flying cars and other flying vehicles, can provide a solution.
Although most flying car models are still in the development phase, there is already global demand, provided that regulatory frameworks advance and infrastructure availability catches up with technology development cycles. According to various estimates, the global flying car market is expected to reach $1+ trillion within the next two decades. Fortune Business Insights forecasts the market to reach $1,533 billion by 2040 at a CAGR of 58.1%. Market Research Future anticipates a market value of $530 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 40%. The United States and Southeast Asia are believed to be the leading regional markets.
In terms of vehicle producers, there are several established players such as Joby Aviation, Lilium, Volocopter, and Ehang. New entrants are also expected, and industry giants like Boeing Co and Airbus will likely develop their own urban mobility projects. The valuations of these companies are already quite high. Volocopter raised $170 million in March 2022 at a pre-money valuation of $1.7 billion. Lilium has a market capitalization of $570 million, and Joby having a market capitalization of $2.86 billion.
Summary of Technological Trends in Global Flying Cars Development
It is still too early to predict which vehicle type will become the market leader due to numerous uncertainties. However, promising flying cars should possess the following features:
- Vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) to facilitate operations in dense urban areas.
- Multirotor copters offer controllable landing in case of one rotor failure and are a less expensive alternative to helicopters.
- Electric propulsion allows for quicker system response compared to internal combustion engines (ICE), making the vehicle easier to control. High voltage systems, which are lighter than low voltage systems, can utilize multiple electronic control units (ECUs) to manage the overall system.
- A battery onboard is crucial for a steady supply of electricity as VTOLs require high-power electricity, which hydrogen fuel cells alone cannot provide.
- AI-assisted control systems are likely to be adopted by VTOLs in the future to monitor various nodes during flight. Unlike a car which can stop in case of failure a flying car has to land. It is projected by Emergen Research that by 2030, two-thirds of all flights will be piloted by AI.
- 5G connectivity could potentially become the industry standard for flying cars as authorities will mandate that all vehicles be connected to a control center.
Excluding speculative factors such as VTOL schemes and powertrain preferences, as well as low differentiation in technology fields like rotor number optimization, and industries resembling commodities such as carbon fiber technology, four key areas should be considered for flying car adoption:
- Analog electronics (electronic control units, ECUs),
- Power electronics (inverters, etc.),
- AI hardware (AI-assisted control systems),
- Connectivity technologies.
Electric Vehicle/Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle and semiconductors
According to P3 Group, electric vehicles require twice as many semiconductors as fossil-fuel vehicles. A significant number of these chips are located in the powertrain. Based on their calculations, semiconductors accounted for 2% of the costs of internal combustion engine vehicles in 2017, while they will comprise 6% for electric vehicles (EVs) and vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (VTOLs) in 2030. Although a flying car will require more semiconductors in certain systems such as vehicle monitoring, it will not need certain other components like ABS. Modern vehicles are equipped with AI driver assistance systems, cameras, and 5G, which will expand the market for companies like Texas Instruments and Qualcomm.
Many people may think that a flying car is simply an electric vehicle, but this is far from accurate. A flying car requires a state-of-the-art battery management system. Engineers must strive to use modern batteries with minimal energy losses. The best approach to achieve this is increasing system voltage and reducing wiring weight as a side effect. Each kilogram saved is crucial for flying vehicles, as a significant amount of energy stored is used during takeoff, landing, or hovering. Running out of battery power is a problem for electric vehicles. It is a matter of life for passengers in flying cars. This is why aviation authorities require a 20-30% "fuel" reserve in any case. The battery industry continuously advances, and methods to improve battery performance already exist.
Microelectronics also plays an important role for flying cars. Let's discuss the adoption of wide-bandgap semiconductors and silicon carbide chemistry by the industry.
What Is A Wide-bandgap Semiconductor?
Wide-bandgap semiconductors (WBG semiconductors) are semiconductor materials that have a larger band gap compared to conventional semiconductors. Conventional semiconductors, such as silicon, have a bandgap of 0.6-1.5 electron-volts (eV), whereas wide-bandgap materials have band gaps above 2 eV. Transistors made from WBG semiconductors have higher breakdown voltages and perform much better at high temperatures. These devices are superior to silicon equivalents for high-voltage and high-power applications. Another advantage of WBGs is their lower leakage current.
Common WBGs include gallium nitride (GaN, with a band gap of up to 3.3 eV) and silicon carbide (SiC, with a band gap of 3.4 eV). GaN and SiC transistors offer higher voltage capabilities, faster switching speeds, higher operating temperatures, and lower conduction resistance compared to silicon. The main drawback of WBGs is their cost. GaN switches provide faster performance than SiC, while SiC transistors can tolerate higher voltage and temperature. Currently, GaN transistors are being introduced for lower voltage applications, such as smartphone fast chargers, while SiC transistors are a better choice for EV onboard chargers.
Tesla’s Silicon Carbide Inverter
The inverter is one of the most crucial components of the power electronics system in every EV. It converts the DC battery into three-phase AC to ensure smooth operation of the electric traction motor. In 2018, Tesla became the first company to incorporate SiC metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) from STMicroelectronics into their in-house inverter design with the release of the Model 3. This technology is claimed to increase the vehicle's range by 10% and offer significant space and weight savings.
Other car manufacturers are also catching up by introducing SiC chips. Hyundai Motor plans to utilize Infineon's SiC chips in their next-generation EVs, resulting in an increase in vehicle range of more than 5%. Similarly, in June 2023, French automaker Renault signed an agreement with STMicroelectronics for the supply of SiC chips starting from 2026.
Silicon Carbide Electronics for flying cars
A decade ago, there were high expectations for the widespread adoption of SiC electronics. Companies like Monolithic Power Systems believed that the cost of SiC would be on par with Si by the end of 2017. The cleantech industry was seen as a potential high-demand market for SiC electronics, particularly for stationary power applications such as solar and wind. However, the overall cost remained the main concern as SiC electronics were significantly more expensive than standard Si. Only a few were willing to use advanced yet costly inverters.
Although the price of SiC electronics has decreased, it is still 2-3 times more expensive than Si. We believe it is unlikely that flying cars will be cheaper than premium vehicles. While the percentage of electronics in the overall cost may be lower for flying cars, reducing their weight is more critical. Every kilogram reduction in weight for flying cars is equivalent to a ten-kilogram reduction in weight for EVs. Regardless of the chosen powertrain, flying vehicles require batteries, inverters, and other power electronics. This approach has already been proven successful by early adopters in the EV market such as Tesla and Hyundai Motor.
The development of aviation-grade SiC power electronics has already begun. Thales Group introduced the COTS Aero power module. It is a full-SiC phase leg power module suitable for all DC/AC power conversion applications up to 260kW. It can operate at altitudes of up to 44,000 feet in non-pressurized zones, depending on the mission profile. This COTS solution is compatible with DO-160 standards and combines a small form factor with a robust mechanical design and high performance, thanks to the use of SiC MOSFET chips. In 2019, GE Aviation also introduced an industry-first SiC converter for the aviation industry. It is evident that industry insiders consider SiC power electronics a "must-have" for electric aviation.
Conclusion
Although the current flying car market is still in its early stages, it is projected to experience substantial growth in the coming decades. This growth will also have a positive impact on related sectors, such as semiconductors, as flying cars will require high-quality electronics. Using SiC/GaN electronics with premium specifications will be advantageous for all forms of transportation, with flying cars generating the highest demand. The adoption of III-V semiconductors in electronics significantly enhances the performance of electric flying vehicles. The introduction of SiC/GaN inverters by leading electric vehicle manufacturers demonstrates the usability and reliability of this technology in transportation applications. Despite the higher cost of SiC technology, we believe it will not be a significant barrier to adoption due to the premium pricing of flying cars. The increasing global manufacturing capacity of III-V semiconductors, driven by demand from the transportation industry, will make SiC/GaN electronics more affordable for a wider range of applications.
If you have any ideas or would like to discuss this topic further, please feel free to contact our colleague, Vladimir Spinko, through LinkedIn or by email at vspinko@i2bf.com.